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Club Brugge 2–2 Genk

← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Wesli De Cremer, Belgium

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk win44%2.19
Club Brugge win31%3.21
Draw25%3.80

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk +0.2551%1.92
Club Brugge +0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.61
Under40%2.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Patrik Hrošovský · Genk
29'🟨Ibrahima Sory Bangoura · Genk
36'🟨Hannes Van Der Bruggen · Club Brugge
43'⚽Alan Minda · Club Brugge
56'🟨Oumar Diakité · Club Brugge
57'⚽Hyeon-gyu Oh · Genk
66'🟨Ken Nkuba · Genk
68'⚽ (pen)Edan Diop · Club Brugge
90'🟨Flávio Nazinho · Club Brugge

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
18Shots16
7On target5
4Corners4
10Fouls9
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeGenk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.670.66
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJan Breydel Stadion
coach days48.00110.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.07
corner diff avg (last 5)3.002.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.803.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.805.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.551.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.11
dominance (last 5)0.500.62
elo1648.581669.08
elo momentum (last 5)7.173.06
eye test v10.050.92
eye trend v10.160.04
first sub minute (last 10)56.7064.30
form points (last 5)10.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.51
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.660.73
league points30.0017.00
league rank1.0010.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4086.20
possession avg (last 5)52.0060.40
rest days0.8013.90
scorer concentration0.200.29
season ppg1.501.42
shot diff avg (last 5)0.007.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.2017.80
skill v10.061.32
solidity v1-0.73-0.00
sot against avg (last 5)5.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.405.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.80
squad age22.9225.21
state index0.370.71
sterile dominance v1-0.270.57
threat rate (last 10)0.280.27
threat rate (last 3)0.340.27
threat rate (last 5)0.280.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.701.22
xg for avg (last 5)1.641.84