← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Wesli De Cremer, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 44% | 2.19 |
| Club Brugge win | 31% | 3.21 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genk +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Club Brugge +0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.61 |
| Under | 40% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Patrik Hrošovský · Genk |
| 29' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Sory Bangoura · Genk |
| 36' | 🟨 | Hannes Van Der Bruggen · Club Brugge |
| 43' | ⚽ | Alan Minda · Club Brugge |
| 56' | 🟨 | Oumar Diakité · Club Brugge |
| 57' | ⚽ | Hyeon-gyu Oh · Genk |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ken Nkuba · Genk |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Edan Diop · Club Brugge |
| 90' | 🟨 | Flávio Nazinho · Club Brugge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Brugge | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Jan Breydel Stadion |
| coach days | 48.00 | 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1648.58 | 1669.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.17 | 3.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| league points | 30.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 0.80 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 1.32 |
| solidity v1 | -0.73 | -0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 22.92 | 25.21 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.84 |