← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Simon Bourdeaud'hui, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise win | 66% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.75 |
| Charleroi win | 13% | 8.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise −1 | 55% | 1.80 |
| Charleroi −1 | 45% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.81 |
| Under | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Mardochee Nzita · Charleroi |
| 16' | ⚽ | Raul Florucz · St. Gilloise |
| 18' | 🟨 | Aiham Ousou · Charleroi |
| 45' | ⚽ | Aiham Ousou · Charleroi |
| 48' | ⚽ | Ousseynou Niang · St. Gilloise |
| 58' | 🟨 | Parfait Guiagon · Charleroi |
| 73' | ⚽ | Mathias Rasmussen · St. Gilloise |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Gilloise | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Joseph Marien |
| coach days | 109.00 | 109.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1832.77 | 1553.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.18 | -13.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | — |
| league points | 26.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 13.09 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -0.78 |
| solidity v1 | 1.34 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | 1.07 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.55 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 0.81 |