← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Ledda,
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 67% | 1.42 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.04 |
| Dender win | 14% | 7.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genk −1.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Dender −1.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.55 |
| Under | 39% | 2.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Bruny Nsimba · Dender |
| 13' | 🟨 | Benjamin Fredrick · Dender |
| 42' | 🟨 | Bruny Nsimba · Dender |
| 45' | 🟨 | Malcolm Viltard · Dender |
| 45' | ⚽ | Bryan Heynen · Genk |
| 55' | 🟨 | Malcolm Viltard · Dender |
| 55' | 🟥 | Malcolm Viltard · Dender |
| 61' | 🟨 | Luc de Fougerolles · Dender |
| 67' | 🟨 | Matte Smets · Genk |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ken Nkuba · Genk |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nikolas Sattlberger |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 9 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genk | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| venue | Cegeka Arena |
| 90' | 🟥 | David Toševski · Dender |
| coach days | 96.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1665.99 | 1430.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.32 | -43.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| league points | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 6.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 0.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | -0.67 |
| solidity v1 | 0.54 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.21 | — |
| state index | 0.03 | -1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 0.51 |