← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 5, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Bram Van Driessche, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht win | 59% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.29 |
| Standard win | 18% | 5.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Standard −1 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Anderlecht −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.77 |
| Under | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Nilson Angulo · Anderlecht |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ibe Hautekiet · Standard |
| 54' | ⚽ | — · Anderlecht |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ludwig Augustinsson · Anderlecht |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Karamoko · Standard |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Karamoko · Standard |
| 89' | 🟥 | Ibrahim Karamoko · Standard |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathan-Dylan Saliba · Anderlecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Anderlecht | Standard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Lotto Park |
| coach days | 96.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1615.87 | 1489.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.35 | 2.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 47.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| league points | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 8.70 | 7.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -0.36 |
| solidity v1 | 0.39 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.61 | 24.89 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 0.85 |