← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jasper Vergoote, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 42% | 2.43 |
| St Truiden win | 31% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.51 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Truiden −0.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Mechelen −0.25 | 49% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ (og) | Shogo Taniguchi · Mechelen |
| 64' | 🟨 | Redouane Halhal · Mechelen |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mathis Servais · Mechelen |
| 74' | 🟨 | Andrés Ferrari · St Truiden |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Arbnor Muja · St Truiden |
| 87' | ⚽ | Keisuke Goto · St Truiden |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fredrik Hammar · Mechelen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Andrés Ferrari · St Truiden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | St Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Achter de Kazerne |
| coach days | 95.00 | 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1595.58 | 1513.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.52 | -35.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.71 |
| league points | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | 0.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.57 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.38 |