← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 28, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Bram Van Driessche, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi win | 46% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 |
| Mechelen win | 26% | 4.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi −0.25 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Mechelen −0.25 | 46% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | Myron Van Brederode · Mechelen |
| 41' | ⚽ | Lion Lauberbach · Mechelen |
| 71' | 🟨 | Lion Lauberbach · Mechelen |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nacho Miras · Mechelen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathis Servais · Mechelen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kerim Mrabti · Mechelen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charleroi | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade du Pays de Charleroi |
| coach days | 89.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1579.22 | 1577.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.47 | -5.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.81 |
| league points | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 8.01 | 6.97 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | 0.41 |
| solidity v1 | 0.52 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.68 |