⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Club Brugge 2–4 Gent

← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bert Put, Belgium

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win43%2.25
Gent win32%3.27
Draw25%3.80

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent −0.2550%2.00
Club Brugge −0.2550%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.73
Under44%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Michał Skóraś · Gent
20'🟨Siebe Van Der Heyden · Gent
22'⚽ (pen)Steve Ngoura · Club Brugge
29'🟨Oluwaseun Adewumi · Club Brugge
31'🟨Jean-Kévin Duverne · Gent
43'⚽Edgaras Utkus · Club Brugge
45'🟨Edan Diop · Club Brugge
45'⚽Atsuki Ito · Gent
48'🟨Abdelkahar Kadri · Gent
69'⚽Omri Gandelman · Gent
87'⚽Franck Surdez

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
23Shots11
8On target8
10Corners2
12Fouls9
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeGent
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.700.68
cards avg (last 5)1.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJan Breydel Stadion
· Gent
coach days27.0089.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d6.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.182.86
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.06
dominance (last 5)0.530.48
elo1649.131541.18
elo momentum (last 5)-2.4926.35
eye test v10.640.21
eye trend v1-0.260.00
first sub minute (last 10)56.1056.70
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.630.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
keeper form v10.670.81
league points23.0012.00
league rank2.0012.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4082.80
possession avg (last 5)49.6052.20
rest days0.914.81
scorer concentration0.250.20
season ppg1.441.33
shot diff avg (last 5)1.60-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.2013.80
skill v10.150.39
solidity v1-0.09-0.43
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.604.80
squad age22.9225.13
state index0.290.20
sterile dominance v1-0.360.26
threat rate (last 10)0.280.24
threat rate (last 3)0.240.21
threat rate (last 5)0.280.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.401.52
xg for avg (last 5)1.941.30