← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 28, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Lawrence Visser, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 45% | 2.12 |
| St Truiden win | 28% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.72 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Truiden +0.5 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Genk +0.5 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.69 |
| Under | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ (og) | Bryan Heynen · St Truiden |
| 35' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Sissako · St Truiden |
| 54' | 🟥 | Rein Van Helden · St Truiden |
| 57' | ⚽ | Junya Ito · Genk |
| 60' | 🟨 | Visar Musliu · St Truiden |
| 65' | 🟨 | Robert-Jan Vanwesemael · St Truiden |
| 71' | 🟨 | Bryan Heynen · Genk |
| 90' | 🟨 | Léo Kokubo · St Truiden |
| 90' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Karetsas · Genk |
| 90' | ⚽ | Hyeon-gyu Oh · Genk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Truiden | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Daio Wasabi Stayen |
| coach days | 89.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.56 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1520.86 | 1672.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.74 | -5.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 6.79 | 2.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | 1.28 |
| solidity v1 | -0.45 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.21 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.74 |