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St Truiden 1–2 Genk

← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 28, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Lawrence Visser, Belgium

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk win45%2.12
St Truiden win28%3.40
Draw26%3.72

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St Truiden +0.554%1.79
Genk +0.546%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.69
Under43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽ (og)Bryan Heynen · St Truiden
35'🟨Abdoulaye Sissako · St Truiden
54'🟥Rein Van Helden · St Truiden
57'⚽Junya Ito · Genk
60'🟨Visar Musliu · St Truiden
65'🟨Robert-Jan Vanwesemael · St Truiden
71'🟨Bryan Heynen · Genk
90'🟨Léo Kokubo · St Truiden
90'🟨Konstantinos Karetsas · Genk
90'⚽Hyeon-gyu Oh · Genk

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots15
4On target7
3Corners6
12Fouls18
4Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSt TruidenGenk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.610.59
cards avg (last 5)0.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDaio Wasabi Stayen
coach days89.0089.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.801.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.561.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.14
dominance (last 5)0.540.57
elo1520.861672.17
elo momentum (last 5)-16.74-5.98
eye test v10.160.37
eye trend v1-0.17-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)64.9065.10
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.710.65
league points14.0011.00
league rank8.0014.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0087.40
possession avg (last 5)55.0059.20
rest days6.792.69
scorer concentration0.250.40
season ppg1.561.10
shot diff avg (last 5)2.003.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.4015.00
skill v10.471.28
solidity v1-0.450.74
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.20
squad age—25.21
state index-0.210.52
sterile dominance v10.290.73
threat rate (last 10)0.280.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.28
threat rate (last 5)0.260.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.402.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.481.00
xg for avg (last 5)1.411.74