← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 21, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: Bert Verbeke, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 42% | 2.27 |
| Club Brugge win | 32% | 3.16 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge −0.25 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Mechelen −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Edan Diop · Club Brugge |
| 22' | 🟨 | Lawrence Agyekum · Club Brugge |
| 69' | 🟨 | Oluwaseun Adewumi · Club Brugge |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gora Diouf · Mechelen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Achter de Kazerne |
| coach days | 82.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.98 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1577.72 | 1646.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.94 | -26.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| league points | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 8.94 | 0.03 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | -0.03 |
| solidity v1 | 0.21 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.92 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.83 |