← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Michiel Allaerts, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi win | 53% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.87 |
| Waregem win | 22% | 4.90 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Waregem −0.75 | 52% | 1.94 |
| Charleroi −0.75 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Patrick Pflücke · Charleroi |
| 24' | 🟥 | Aiham Ousou · Charleroi |
| 62' | 🟨 | Cheick Keita · Charleroi |
| 62' | ⚽ | Joseph Opoku · Waregem |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jakob Kiilerich · Waregem |
| 73' | 🟨 | Kevin Van Den Kerkhof · Charleroi |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lewin Blum · Charleroi |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jelle Vossen · Waregem |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 19 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 11 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charleroi | Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade du Pays de Charleroi |
| coach days | 81.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1595.29 | 1410.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.52 | 17.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 75.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | — |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| league points | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 2.91 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | -0.87 |
| solidity v1 | 0.81 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.00 |