← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 14, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: Bram Van Driessche, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Truiden win | 44% | 2.15 |
| Westerlo win | 30% | 3.35 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Truiden −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Westerlo −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.65 |
| Under | 41% | 2.48 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Nacho Ferri · Westerlo |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Griffin Yow · Westerlo |
| 57' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Sissako · St Truiden |
| 58' | ⚽ | Emin Bayram · Westerlo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Bryan Reynolds · Westerlo |
| 67' | 🟨 | Andreas Jungdal · Westerlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Truiden | Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Daio Wasabi Stayen |
| coach days | 75.00 | 75.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1553.77 | 1541.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.00 | -7.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| league points | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 15.94 | 15.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | 1.27 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.95 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.72 | 1.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.96 | 1.56 |