← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 31, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: Bram Van Driessche, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 68% | 1.40 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.29 |
| Waregem win | 14% | 7.79 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Waregem −1.5 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Genk −1.5 | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.53 |
| Under | 38% | 2.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Jeppe Erenbjerg · Waregem |
| 13' | ⚽ | Mujaid Sadick · Genk |
| 14' | 🟨 | Robin Mirisola · Genk |
| 29' | ⚽ | Robin Mirisola · Genk |
| 33' | 🟥 | Mujaid Sadick · Genk |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Anton Tanghe · Waregem |
| 47' | 🟨 | Enrique Lofolomo · Waregem |
| 56' | ⚽ | Zakaria El Ouahdi · Genk |
| 74' | 🟨 | Tochukwu Nnadi · Waregem |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joris Kayembe · Genk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genk | Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Cegeka Arena |
| coach days | 61.00 | 61.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1706.14 | 1402.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.97 | -6.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.80 | 76.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 2.97 | 7.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | — |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.47 | -0.54 |
| solidity v1 | -0.45 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.73 | 23.87 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.28 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.01 |