← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Wesli De Cremer, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi win | 55% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 |
| Dender win | 19% | 5.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dender −0.75 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Charleroi −0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ (pen) | Parfait Guiagon · Charleroi |
| 50' | ⚽ | Antoine Bernier · Charleroi |
| 65' | 🟨 | Antoine Bernier · Charleroi |
| 67' | ⚽ | Jordan Attah Kadiri · Dender |
| 88' | ⚽ | Parfait Guiagon · Charleroi |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charleroi | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade du Pays de Charleroi |
| coach days | 60.00 | 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1558.81 | 1450.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.38 | -44.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.30 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 2.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| league points | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 13.09 | 6.06 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -0.41 |
| solidity v1 | 0.23 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.34 | -1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 0.69 |