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Standard 0–3 Club Brugge

← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 Β· Sat, Aug 23, 04:15 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Boterberg

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win36%2.73
Standard win34%2.84
Draw29%3.30

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge +052%1.91
Standard +048%2.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.80
Over46%2.20

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Edan Diop · Club Brugge
37'🟨Gary Magnee · Club Brugge
45'🟨Marco Ilaimaharitra · Standard
45'⚽Steve Ngoura · Club Brugge
45'⚽Edgaras Utkus · Club Brugge
63'🟨Steve Ngoura · Club Brugge
73'🟨Hannes Van Der Bruggen · Club Brugge

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
15Shots18
3On target9
4Corners3
4Fouls12
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricStandardClub Brugge
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.560.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.600.73
cards avg (last 5)2.400.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueMaurice Dufrasnestadion
coach days53.0053.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.40-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.11
dominance (last 5)0.330.58
elo1509.181659.50
elo momentum (last 5)29.76-23.64
eye test v1-0.47-0.25
eye trend v10.58-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)51.2053.40
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.77
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.40
keeper form v10.760.63
league points7.0010.00
league rank8.003.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4076.00
possession avg (last 5)38.0047.20
rest days6.905.96
season ppg1.751.43
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.803.20
shots for avg (last 5)7.6016.20
skill v1-0.70-0.08
solidity v1-0.06-0.45
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.904.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.40
squad age24.8922.92
state index-0.060.21
sterile dominance v1-0.24-0.30
threat rate (last 10)0.210.30
threat rate (last 3)0.200.26
threat rate (last 5)0.200.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.441.80
xg for avg (last 5)1.131.59