← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Van Driessche
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise win | 70% | 1.36 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.71 |
| Standard win | 9% | 10.72 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Standard −1.5 | 54% | 1.79 |
| St. Gilloise −1.5 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.94 |
| Under | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Thomas Henry · Standard |
| 23' | ⚽ | Kevin Rodriguez · St. Gilloise |
| 25' | 🟨 | Thomas Henry · Standard |
| 25' | 🟥 | Thomas Henry · Standard |
| 61' | ⚽ | Kevin Rodriguez · St. Gilloise |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ousseynou Niang · St. Gilloise |
| 84' | ⚽ | Promise David · St. Gilloise |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 4 |
| 11 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Gilloise | Standard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Joseph Marien |
| coach days | 46.00 | 46.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1842.62 | 1512.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.89 | 31.67 |
| eye test v1 | 1.85 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.71 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | — |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | -0.47 |
| solidity v1 | 1.30 | 1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 24.89 |
| state index | 1.57 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.30 |