← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: N. Laforge
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 45% | 2.15 |
| Gent win | 28% | 3.71 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.53 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mechelen −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Gent −0.25 | 48% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.68 |
| Under | 44% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Bilal Bafdili · Mechelen |
| 33' | 🟨 | Matisse Samoise · Gent |
| 47' | 🟨 | Gora Diouf · Mechelen |
| 64' | ⚽ | Omri Gandelman · Gent |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Marsà · Mechelen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 23 |
| 3 | On target | 11 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | Achter de Kazerne |
| coach days | 46.00 | 46.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.85 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1583.70 | 1511.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.89 | -26.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| league points | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 0.53 |
| solidity v1 | -0.30 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.13 |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.28 |