← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 10, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: N. Verboomen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 50% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.61 |
| Standard win | 23% | 4.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genk +0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Standard +0.5 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.86 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Marco Ilaimaharitra · Standard |
| 28' | 🟨 | Daan Dierckx · Standard |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Thomas Henry · Standard |
| 44' | 🟨 | Rafiki Saïd · Standard |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bryan Heynen · Genk |
| 54' | ⚽ | Marlon Fossey · Standard |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mujaid Sadick · Genk |
| 70' | ⚽ | Tolu Arokodare · Genk |
| 80' | 🟨 | Matthieu Epolo · Standard |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ken Nkuba · Genk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Standard | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| venue | Maurice Dufrasnestadion |
| coach days | 40.00 | 40.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1499.45 | 1669.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.32 | 4.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 68.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.61 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 8.01 | 7.21 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | 0.86 |
| solidity v1 | 1.45 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.89 | 25.21 |
| state index | -0.00 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.35 |