← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Fri, Aug 8, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Ledda
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Truiden win | 46% | 2.10 |
| Dender win | 28% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.67 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dender −0.5 | 54% | 1.81 |
| St Truiden −0.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.81 |
| Under | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrés Ferrari · St Truiden |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rihito Yamamoto · St Truiden |
| 49' | 🟥 | Luc de Fougerolles · Dender |
| 53' | ⚽ | Ryotaro Ito · St Truiden |
| 77' | 🟨 | Rein Van Helden · St Truiden |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ryan Merlen · St Truiden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Truiden | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Daio Wasabi Stayen |
| coach days | 38.00 | 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1519.02 | 1497.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.02 | 26.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 5.06 | 6.10 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 0.31 |
| solidity v1 | 0.07 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.29 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.29 |