← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 3, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: K. van Damme
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi win | 45% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.49 |
| St Truiden win | 27% | 3.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| St Truiden −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.85 |
| Under | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Massamba Sow · Charleroi |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Ryotaro Ito · St Truiden |
| 39' | 🟨 | Isaac Mbenza · Charleroi |
| 41' | ⚽ | Nikola Štulić · Charleroi |
| 50' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Sissako · St Truiden |
| 59' | 🟨 | Nikola Štulić · Charleroi |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nikola Štulić · Charleroi |
| 65' | 🟥 | Nikola Štulić · Charleroi |
| 78' | 🟨 | Aiham Ousou · Charleroi |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charleroi | St Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stade du Pays de Charleroi |
| coach days |
| 33.00 |
| 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1573.02 | 1515.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.74 | 30.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.50 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 2.97 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | -0.24 |
| solidity v1 | -0.93 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.77 |