← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 2, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Simon Bourdeaud'hui, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Standard win | 42% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 |
| Dender win | 28% | 3.67 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Standard −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Dender −0.25 | 50% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Marlon Fossey · Standard |
| 63' | 🟨 | Malcolm Viltard · Dender |
| 65' | ⚽ | Dennis Eckert · Standard |
| 75' | 🟨 | Hakim Sahabo · Standard |
| 76' | 🟨 | Joedrick Pupe · Dender |
| 85' | ⚽ | Roman Kvet · Dender |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Henry · Standard |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aurelien Scheidler · Dender |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Standard | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Maurice Dufrasnestadion |
| coach days | 32.00 | 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 1.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1501.34 | 1495.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.12 | 45.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.60 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.09 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 0.48 |
| solidity v1 | 1.11 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.89 | — |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.78 |