← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sat, Jul 26, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: K. van Damme
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 45% | 2.17 |
| Waregem win | 30% | 3.22 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.83 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mechelen +0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Waregem +0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.59 |
| Under | 40% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Lion Lauberbach · Mechelen |
| 37' | 🟨 | Rafik Belghali · Mechelen |
| 52' | 🟨 | Benoit Nyssen · Waregem |
| 57' | 🟨 | Moncef Zekri · Mechelen |
| 83' | 🟨 | Tochukwu Nnadi · Waregem |
| 86' | 🟨 | Anton Tanghe · Waregem |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rob Schoofs · Mechelen |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jelle Vossen · Waregem |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waregem | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Elindus Arena |
| coach days | 25.00 | 25.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.57 |
| elo | 1384.47 | 1547.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.67 | 18.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.25 | 0.94 |
| solidity v1 | — | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.39 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | — | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | — | 1.96 |