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St. Gilloise 3–1 Gent

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, May 25, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Visser

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise win86%1.10
Draw9%10.00
Gent win4%25.38

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise −2.551%1.91
Gent −2.549%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over71%1.34
Under29%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Franjo Ivanović · St. Gilloise
45'⚽Andri Guðjohnsen · Gent
68'⚽Promise David · St. Gilloise
69'🟨Promise David · St. Gilloise
75'⚽Promise David · St. Gilloise
87'🟨Koki Machida · St. Gilloise

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
16Shots4
6On target1
7Corners4
16Fouls10
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSt. GilloiseGent
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.820.70
cards avg (last 5)2.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Joseph Mariën
coach days328.00144.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.04
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.006.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.003.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.251.43
defensive leak (last 5)0.000.26
dominance (last 5)0.500.40
elo1833.731523.56
elo momentum (last 5)16.54-58.44
eye test v1-0.31-0.19
eye trend v10.110.43
first sub minute (last 10)54.0051.20
form points (last 5)11.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-2.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.003.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.270.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.700.10
keeper form v1—0.54
league points90.0056.00
league rank2.0010.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.008.00
matches since win0.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8079.20
possession avg (last 5)39.8040.60
rest days7.917.00
scorer concentration0.210.13
season ppg2.001.24
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-6.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.2010.60
skill v1-0.45-0.35
solidity v11.37-1.98
sot against avg (last 5)2.406.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.00
squad age—25.13
state index1.30-1.37
sterile dominance v1-0.40-0.56
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.280.27
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.60
xg against avg (last 5)0.952.04
xg for avg (last 5)1.451.31