← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Vergoote
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| St Truiden win | 46% | 35% | 2.07 | fair |
| Kortrijk win | 28% | 37% | 3.43 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.80 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| St Truiden +0.25 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Kortrijk +0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.63 |
| Under | 41% | 2.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 5 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand