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Kortrijk 2–2 St Truiden

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Vergoote

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St Truiden win46%2.07
Kortrijk win28%3.43
Draw26%3.80

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St Truiden +0.2553%1.81
Kortrijk +0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.63
Under41%2.35

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Adriano Bertaccini · St Truiden
8'⚽Abdelkahar Kadri · Kortrijk
21'⚽Nayel Mehssatou · Kortrijk
37'⚽Loïc Lapoussin · St Truiden
49'🟨Rein Van Helden · St Truiden

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
18Shots16
6On target7
3Corners7
5Fouls8
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKortrijkSt Truiden
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.45
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.590.73
cards avg (last 5)2.803.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGuldensporenstadion
coach days
98.00
39.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.270.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.403.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.201.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.762.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.19
dominance (last 5)0.460.65
elo1473.841501.66
elo momentum (last 5)39.630.30
eye test v1-0.620.83
eye trend v1-0.02-0.28
first sub minute (last 10)58.0061.10
form points (last 5)10.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v1—0.68
league points41.0044.00
league rank16.0014.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.4076.80
possession avg (last 5)51.8052.00
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.230.43
season ppg1.051.13
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.607.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.0015.00
skill v1-0.750.26
solidity v10.390.69
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.105.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.406.40
state index0.32-0.04
sterile dominance v10.38-0.25
threat rate (last 10)0.220.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.27
threat rate (last 5)0.170.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.170.98
xg for avg (last 5)0.991.69