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Beerschot VA 4–2 Club Brugge

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Put

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win62%1.55
Draw21%4.75
Beerschot VA win18%5.75

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge +150%1.93
Beerschot VA +150%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.55
Under39%2.48

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Lawrence Agyekum · Club Brugge
35'🟨Katuku Derrick Tshimanga · Beerschot VA
48'⚽Apostolos Konstantopoulos · Beerschot VA
50'⚽Apostolos Konstantopoulos · Beerschot VA
56'⚽ (pen)Loïc Mbe Soh · Beerschot VA
57'🟨Hannes Van Der Bruggen · Club Brugge
61'🟨Brian Plat · Beerschot VA
74'🟨Lucas Perrin · Club Brugge
78'⚽ (pen)Faisal Al-Ghamdi · Beerschot VA
82'🟨Dean Huiberts · Beerschot VA
90'⚽Paris Brunner · Club Brugge

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots24
7On target7
5Corners9
6Fouls12
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBeerschot VAClub Brugge
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.520.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.740.72
cards avg (last 5)0.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOlympisch Stadion
coach days
495.00
9.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-6.602.20
corners against avg (last 5)8.203.00
corners for avg (last 5)1.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.382.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.18
dominance (last 5)0.280.72
elo1345.361648.36
elo momentum (last 5)-1.30-9.96
eye test v1-1.020.38
eye trend v10.36-0.31
first sub minute (last 10)57.8052.00
form points (last 5)3.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v1—0.67
league points23.00112.00
league rank17.001.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0067.60
possession avg (last 5)44.8051.40
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.210.26
season ppg0.591.56
shot diff avg (last 5)-11.2011.00
shots for avg (last 5)6.4017.40
skill v1-0.65-0.37
solidity v1-1.550.52
sot against avg (last 5)6.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.904.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.405.20
squad age—22.92
state index-0.720.36
sterile dominance v10.45-0.63
threat rate (last 10)0.210.32
threat rate (last 3)0.140.22
threat rate (last 5)0.140.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60
xg against avg (last 5)2.141.04
xg for avg (last 5)0.981.68