← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Van Driessche
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise win | 55% | 56% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
| Genk win | 20% | 18% | 5.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genk −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| St. Gilloise −0.75 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.93 |
| Under | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Charles Vanhoutte · St. Gilloise |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Sory Bangoura · Genk |
| 45' | 🟨 | Promise David · St. Gilloise |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Sory Bangoura · Genk |
| 51' | 🟥 | Ibrahima Sory Bangoura · Genk |
| 56' | 🟨 | Kamiel Van de Perre · St. Gilloise |
| 66' | 🟨 | Kevin Mac Allister · St. Gilloise |
| 67' | ⚽ | Christian Burgess · St. Gilloise |
| 71' | 🟨 | Christian Burgess · St. Gilloise |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bryan Heynen · Genk |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Gilloise | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Joseph Mariën |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Zakaria El Ouahdi · Genk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 306.00 | 336.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1849.91 | 1731.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.85 | -44.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.66 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 66.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.79 |
| league points | 81.00 | 81.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 6.09 | 6.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.98 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | 0.74 |
| solidity v1 | 1.47 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.57 | 23.12 |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 1.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.20 |