⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

St. Gilloise 1–0 Genk

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Van Driessche

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise win55%1.75
Draw26%3.70
Genk win20%5.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk −0.7551%1.93
St. Gilloise −0.7549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.93
Under49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'🟨Charles Vanhoutte · St. Gilloise
43'🟨Ibrahima Sory Bangoura · Genk
45'🟨Promise David · St. Gilloise
51'🟨Ibrahima Sory Bangoura · Genk
51'🟥Ibrahima Sory Bangoura · Genk
56'🟨Kamiel Van de Perre · St. Gilloise
66'🟨Kevin Mac Allister · St. Gilloise
67'⚽Christian Burgess · St. Gilloise
71'🟨Christian Burgess · St. Gilloise
90'🟨Bryan Heynen · Genk
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots3
4On target1
4Corners2
17Fouls16
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSt. GilloiseGenk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.770.66
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Joseph Mariën
Zakaria El Ouahdi · Genk
coach days306.00336.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d6.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.203.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.802.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.551.14
defensive leak (last 5)0.020.10
dominance (last 5)0.480.48
elo1809.801703.37
elo momentum (last 5)22.59-45.37
eye test v1-0.49-0.14
eye trend v1-0.65-0.31
first sub minute (last 10)51.6066.70
form points (last 5)11.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.551.23
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.700.40
keeper form v10.820.79
league points81.0081.00
league rank2.003.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4086.20
possession avg (last 5)37.4056.60
rest days6.096.20
scorer concentration0.240.37
season ppg1.931.98
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.0012.00
skill v1-0.700.74
solidity v11.47-0.64
sot against avg (last 5)2.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.80
squad age—25.21
state index0.92-0.24
sterile dominance v1-0.670.97
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.200.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40
xg against avg (last 5)0.741.77
xg for avg (last 5)1.361.20