⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Club Brugge 0–2 Kortrijk

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. D'hondt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win52%1.83
Draw26%3.66
Kortrijk win21%4.60

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk −0.7554%1.82
Club Brugge −0.7546%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.90
Over49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Nayel Mehssatou · Kortrijk
35'🟨Warleson · Club Brugge
38'⚽ (pen)Abdelkahar Kadri · Kortrijk
41'🟨Ryotaro Tsunoda · Kortrijk
45'🟨Karim Dermane · Kortrijk
45'🟨Nacho Ferri · Kortrijk
54'🟨Flávio Nazinho · Club Brugge
71'🟨Abdelkahar Kadri · Kortrijk
82'🟨Abdoulaye Sissako · Kortrijk
90'🟨Lucas Perrin · Club Brugge

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
16Shots5
4On target4
7Corners2
13Fouls15
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeKortrijk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.730.67
cards avg (last 5)1.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJan Breydelstadion
coach days
2.00
91.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d7.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.25
corner diff avg (last 5)1.602.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.202.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.462.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.19
dominance (last 5)0.740.49
elo1673.481448.72
elo momentum (last 5)38.4731.60
eye test v10.55-0.70
eye trend v10.19-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)52.0057.70
form points (last 5)10.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.660.92
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.67—
league points112.0038.00
league rank1.0016.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.8069.40
possession avg (last 5)48.4051.60
rest days2.007.79
scorer concentration0.260.24
season ppg1.581.00
shot diff avg (last 5)12.200.00
shots for avg (last 5)18.209.40
skill v1-0.37-0.60
solidity v10.310.34
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.90
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.20
squad age22.92—
state index1.150.02
sterile dominance v1-0.950.33
threat rate (last 10)0.300.23
threat rate (last 3)0.310.20
threat rate (last 5)0.320.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.201.27
xg for avg (last 5)1.751.12