← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. D'hondt
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge win | 52% | 72% | 1.83 | value: +31% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 19% | 3.66 | fair |
| Kortrijk win | 21% | 10% | 4.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kortrijk −0.75 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Club Brugge −0.75 | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Nayel Mehssatou · Kortrijk |
| 35' | 🟨 | Warleson · Club Brugge |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Abdelkahar Kadri · Kortrijk |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ryotaro Tsunoda · Kortrijk |
| 45' | 🟨 | Karim Dermane · Kortrijk |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nacho Ferri · Kortrijk |
| 54' | 🟨 | Flávio Nazinho · Club Brugge |
| 71' | 🟨 | Abdelkahar Kadri · Kortrijk |
| 82' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Sissako · Kortrijk |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Perrin · Club Brugge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Brugge | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Jan Breydelstadion |
| coach days | 2.00 | 91.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1711.76 | 1481.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.39 | 32.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 112.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.55 |
| solidity v1 | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.42 | 24.53 |
| state index | 1.22 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.12 |