← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: N. Laforge
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge win | 40% | 65% | 2.40 | value: +57% ⚠ |
| St Truiden win | 31% | 14% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 21% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Truiden −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Club Brugge −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.89 |
| Under | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Lucas Perrin · Club Brugge |
| 33' | 🟨 | Rihito Yamamoto · St Truiden |
| 36' | 🟨 | Rihito Yamamoto · St Truiden |
| 36' | 🟥 | Rihito Yamamoto · St Truiden |
| 43' | ⚽ | Thibo Somers · Club Brugge |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rein Van Helden · St Truiden |
| 58' | ⚽ | Louis Patris · St Truiden |
| 66' | 🟨 | Adriano Bertaccini · St Truiden |
| 68' | 🟨 | Joel Chima Fujita · St Truiden |
| 75' | 🟨 | Hannes Van Der Bruggen · Club Brugge |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Brugge | St Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Jan Breydelstadion |
| 75' |
| 🟨 |
| Ryotaro Ito · St Truiden |
| 86' | 🟨 | Visar Musliu · St Truiden |
| 90' | 🟨 | Flávio Nazinho · Club Brugge |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paris Brunner · Club Brugge |
| 90' | 🟨 | Louis Patris · St Truiden |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Paris Brunner · Club Brugge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 56.00 | 25.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1689.34 | 1537.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.23 | -4.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 105.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 2.01 | 14.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 0.37 |
| solidity v1 | 0.21 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 23.84 | 25.66 |
| state index | 0.83 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.89 |