← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win | 43% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
| Standard win | 28% | 3.47 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Standard −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.