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Antwerp 0–1 Gent

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 13, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: N. Verboomen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp win47%2.05
Gent win28%3.50
Draw26%3.83

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent −0.553%1.85
Antwerp −0.547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.67
Under42%2.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Jelle Bataille · Antwerp
22'⚽Noah Fadiga · Gent
27'🟨Vincent Janssen · Antwerp
29'🟨Noah Fadiga · Gent
41'🟨Denis Odoi · Antwerp
79'🟨Jordan Torunarigha · Gent
90'🟨Stefan Mitrović · Gent
90'🟨Tsuyoshi Watanabe · Gent

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots17
4On target7
4Corners2
10Fouls6
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntwerpGent
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.490.64
cards avg (last 5)2.000.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBosuilstadion
coach days
43.00
102.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.271.29
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.17
dominance (last 5)0.350.50
elo1599.241622.00
elo momentum (last 5)-40.09-29.53
eye test v1-0.58-0.25
eye trend v1-0.58-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)56.2060.30
form points (last 5)1.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.750.59
league points51.0053.00
league rank7.006.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win8.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6081.00
possession avg (last 5)47.6055.40
rest days7.007.70
scorer concentration0.250.14
season ppg1.381.47
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.800.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.2012.00
skill v1-0.370.29
solidity v1-0.92-1.02
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.80
squad age—25.13
state index-0.89-0.25
sterile dominance v10.580.64
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.150.17
threat rate (last 5)0.180.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.482.01
xg for avg (last 5)0.661.10