← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: L. D'hondt
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise win | 58% | 49% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 3.96 | value: +11% |
| Anderlecht win | 18% | 22% | 5.47 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Anderlecht −0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.86 |
| Under | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Ousseynou Niang · St. Gilloise |
| 37' | 🟨 | Noah Sadiki · St. Gilloise |
| 45' | ⚽ | Promise David · St. Gilloise |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jan-Carlo Simic · Anderlecht |
| 60' | 🟨 | Alessio Castro-Montes · St. Gilloise |
| 62' | 🟨 | Anan Khalaili · St. Gilloise |
| 63' | 🟨 | César Huerta · Anderlecht |
| 81' | 🟨 | Luis Vázquez · Anderlecht |
| 82' | ⚽ | Anouar Ait El Hadj · St. Gilloise |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nathan De Cat · Anderlecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Gilloise | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Joseph Mariën |
| coach days | 285.00 | 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1821.37 | 1664.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.72 | -36.14 |
| eye test v1 | 1.18 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| league points | 67.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.75 | 0.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.91 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.45 | 25.50 |
| state index | 1.43 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.96 | 0.84 |