← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: B. Put
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Truiden win | 42% | 27% | 2.29 | fair |
| Club Brugge win | 29% | 47% | 3.40 | value: +61% ⚠ |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| St Truiden −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Adriano Bertaccini · St Truiden |
| 41' | ⚽ | Billal Brahimi · St Truiden |
| 44' | 🟨 | Rihito Yamamoto · St Truiden |
| 44' | ⚽ | Ibrahim Diakité · Club Brugge |
| 47' | 🟨 | Billal Brahimi · St Truiden |
| 47' | 🟨 | Hannes Van Der Bruggen · Club Brugge |
| 50' | 🟨 | Louis Patris · St Truiden |
| 59' | ⚽ | Adriano Bertaccini · St Truiden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Truiden | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium |
| coach days | 11.00 | 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 4.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1518.07 | 1682.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.70 | 18.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 38.00 | 99.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 6.09 | 6.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 11.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.03 | 23.82 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -1.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.32 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.64 |