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Kortrijk 3–2 Beerschot VA

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Smet

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk win58%1.64
Draw23%4.24
Beerschot VA win18%5.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk −0.7553%1.82
Beerschot VA −0.7547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.70
Under43%2.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Ewan Henderson · Beerschot VA
39'⚽Jean-Kévin Duverne · Kortrijk
43'⚽Nacho Ferri · Kortrijk
45'⚽Antoine Colassin · Beerschot VA
66'🟨Marco Ilaimaharitra · Kortrijk
73'🟨Davor Matijaš · Beerschot VA
82'⚽Nayel Mehssatou · Kortrijk
90'🟨Nacho Ferri · Kortrijk

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
16Shots7
5On target4
9Corners0
17Fouls6
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKortrijkBeerschot VA
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.23
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.14
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.19
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.630.53
cards avg (last 5)2.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGuldensporenstadion
coach days
70.00
467.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.260.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.006.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.752.74
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.09
dominance (last 5)0.480.41
elo1461.781336.96
elo momentum (last 5)63.46-10.11
eye test v1-0.25-0.82
eye trend v1-0.17-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)57.6055.70
form points (last 5)13.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
keeper form v10.710.63
league points35.0020.00
league rank16.0017.00
matches since blank12.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.8082.60
possession avg (last 5)48.8052.40
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.230.20
season ppg0.970.56
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-6.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.8011.20
skill v1-0.770.25
solidity v10.62-1.93
sot against avg (last 5)3.807.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.602.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.671.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.402.40
state index0.52-0.99
sterile dominance v1-0.160.61
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.150.20
threat rate (last 5)0.210.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.122.41
xg for avg (last 5)1.211.08