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Charleroi 1–0 Standard

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 Β· Sun, Apr 6, 05:15 PM UTC Β· ref: N. Verboomen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Charleroi win50%1.93
Draw27%3.50
Standard win23%4.39

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Charleroi βˆ’0.550%1.94
Standard βˆ’0.550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.73
Over44%2.19

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

44'⚽Antoine Bernier · Charleroi
52'🟨Ilay Camara · Standard
60'🟨Isaac Mbenza · Charleroi

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots8
3On target1
3Corners2
6Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCharleroiStandard
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.680.71
cards avg (last 5)0.801.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade du Pays de Charleroi
coach days
401.00
461.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.08
corner diff avg (last 5)2.601.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.732.01
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.17
dominance (last 5)0.530.51
elo1518.211511.86
elo momentum (last 5)-20.7516.97
eye test v10.27-0.44
eye trend v1-0.15-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)65.1061.10
form points (last 5)2.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.650.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.730.54
league points40.0047.00
league rank11.008.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win6.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.6077.20
possession avg (last 5)55.2042.20
rest days8.908.00
scorer concentration0.280.31
season ppg1.111.34
shot diff avg (last 5)0.800.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.2010.20
skill v10.90-0.51
solidity v1-0.320.29
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.40
squad ageβ€”24.89
state index-0.56-0.14
sterile dominance v10.61-0.43
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.250.25
threat rate (last 5)0.240.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.351.20
xg for avg (last 5)1.691.14