← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Vergoote
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Club Brugge win | 66% | 76% | 1.44 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 21% | 16% | 4.55 | fair |
| Beerschot VA win | 13% | 8% | 7.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Beerschot VA −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Club Brugge −1.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.80 |
| Under | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand