← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 4, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: W. De Cremer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 51% | 61% | 1.87 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.79 | fair |
| Dender win | 23% | 16% | 4.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mechelen −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Dender −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.85 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Nikola Storm · Mechelen |
| 14' | ⚽ | Lion Lauberbach · Mechelen |
| 21' | ⚽ | Rob Schoofs · Mechelen |
| 42' | ⚽ | Rob Schoofs · Mechelen |
| 56' | ⚽ | Lion Lauberbach · Mechelen |
| 59' | ⚽ | Bruny Nsimba · Dender |
| 77' | 🟨 | Noah Mbamba · Dender |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mohamed Berte · Dender |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 5 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 34.00 | 338.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1590.07 | 1479.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.70 | -7.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| league points | 43.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 6.06 | 5.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | -0.81 |
| solidity v1 | 0.47 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.54 | 26.13 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.01 |