⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Mechelen 5–2 Dender

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 4, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: W. De Cremer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen win51%1.87
Draw25%3.79
Dender win23%4.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen −0.552%1.88
Dender −0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.85
Under47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Nikola Storm · Mechelen
14'⚽Lion Lauberbach · Mechelen
21'⚽Rob Schoofs · Mechelen
42'⚽Rob Schoofs · Mechelen
56'⚽Lion Lauberbach · Mechelen
59'⚽Bruny Nsimba · Dender
77'🟨Noah Mbamba · Dender
90'⚽Mohamed Berte · Dender

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score0
20Shots9
10On target4
4Corners1
5Fouls8
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMechelenDender
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.600.72
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAFAS Stadion
coach days
34.00
338.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.606.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.953.24
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.08
dominance (last 5)0.460.42
elo1551.151464.26
elo momentum (last 5)1.72-10.24
eye test v1-0.16-0.19
eye trend v10.040.54
first sub minute (last 10)53.8055.80
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.750.68
league points43.0036.00
league rank9.0015.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4072.80
possession avg (last 5)52.6042.80
rest days6.065.06
scorer concentration0.300.21
season ppg1.231.03
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.60-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.6012.80
skill v10.25-0.86
solidity v10.49-0.93
sot against avg (last 5)4.206.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.40
state index0.07-0.54
sterile dominance v10.42-0.90
threat rate (last 10)0.250.27
threat rate (last 3)0.270.39
threat rate (last 5)0.220.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.021.77
xg for avg (last 5)1.391.01