← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: N. Laforge
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise win | 66% | 53% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 27% | 4.75 | value: +30% |
| Antwerp win | 13% | 20% | 7.28 | value: +45% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Antwerp −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| St. Gilloise −1.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Anan Khalaili · St. Gilloise |
| 14' | ⚽ | Promise David · St. Gilloise |
| 15' | 🟨 | Rosen Bozhinov · Antwerp |
| 34' | 🟨 | Anan Khalaili · St. Gilloise |
| 37' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · Antwerp |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rosen Bozhinov · Antwerp |
| 45' | 🟥 | Rosen Bozhinov · Antwerp |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Franjo Ivanović · St. Gilloise |
| 67' | 🟨 | Olivier Deman · Antwerp |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ousseynou Niang · St. Gilloise |
| 71' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Gilloise | Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Joseph Mariën |
| ⚽ |
| Koki Machida · St. Gilloise |
| 87' | ⚽ | Franjo Ivanović · St. Gilloise |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 271.00 | 28.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1799.01 | 1659.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.06 | -15.02 |
| eye test v1 | 1.43 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.84 |
| league points | 61.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.02 | -0.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.76 | 26.31 |
| state index | 1.25 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.11 | 0.95 |