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Standard 2–2 Mechelen

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: W. Smet

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen win35%2.76
Standard win35%2.81
Draw30%3.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen +051%1.93
Standard +049%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.79
Over46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Andreas Hountondji · Standard
33'⚽Patrick Pflücke · Mechelen
41'⚽Lazare Amani · Standard
68'⚽Keano Vanrafelghem · Mechelen
80'🟨Ahmed Touba · Mechelen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
10Shots13
3On target4
8Corners5
9Fouls8
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricStandardMechelen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.740.62
cards avg (last 5)1.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Maurice Dufrasne
coach days
453.00
28.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.200.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.942.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.04
dominance (last 5)0.500.42
elo1512.491550.51
elo momentum (last 5)1.8417.65
eye test v1-0.47-0.26
eye trend v1-0.200.12
first sub minute (last 10)62.5051.90
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.590.78
league points46.0042.00
league rank8.009.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0077.20
possession avg (last 5)43.8048.20
rest days13.2012.99
scorer concentration0.360.32
season ppg1.351.24
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.20-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.0011.20
skill v1-0.40-0.17
solidity v10.390.25
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.805.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.00
squad age24.89—
state index-0.220.23
sterile dominance v1-0.130.03
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.210.28
threat rate (last 5)0.230.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.161.10
xg for avg (last 5)1.131.27