← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: K. Van Damme
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 51% | 77% | 1.94 | value: +50% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 16% | 3.75 | fair |
| Kortrijk win | 23% | 7% | 4.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kortrijk −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Gent −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Thierry Ambrose · Kortrijk |
| 58' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Sissako · Kortrijk |
| 70' | ⚽ | Marco Ilaimaharitra · Kortrijk |
| 82' | 🟨 | Mark Mampasi · Kortrijk |
| 85' | 🟨 | Thierry Ambrose · Kortrijk |
| 90' | 🟨 | Noah Fadiga · Gent |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Pirard · Kortrijk |
| 90' | 🟥 | James Ndjeungoue · Kortrijk |
| 90' | ⚽ | Noah Fadiga · Gent |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gent | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Planet Group Arena |
| coach days | 74.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1692.05 | 1449.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.18 | 33.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| league points | 53.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -0.53 |
| solidity v1 | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.58 | 25.28 |
| state index | 0.70 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.34 |