← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 9, 06:15 PM UTC · ref: L. D'hondt
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise win | 70% | 71% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.40 | value: +8% |
| Standard win | 11% | 9% | 9.47 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Standard −1.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| St. Gilloise −1.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.70 |
| Under | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Promise David · St. Gilloise |
| 43' | 🟨 | Christian Burgess · St. Gilloise |
| 51' | 🟨 | Mathias Rasmussen · St. Gilloise |
| 55' | ⚽ | Promise David · St. Gilloise |
| 56' | 🟨 | Aiden O'Neill · Standard |
| 59' | 🟨 | Aiden O'Neill · Standard |
| 59' | 🟥 | Aiden O'Neill · Standard |
| 77' | 🟨 | Henry Lawrence · Standard |
| 82' | ⚽ | Franjo Ivanović · St. Gilloise |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Gilloise | Standard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.63 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Joseph Mariën |
| coach days | 251.00 | 433.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1804.21 | 1550.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.12 | 1.72 |
| eye test v1 | 1.95 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.69 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| league points | 58.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 7.94 | 7.03 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.97 | -0.47 |
| solidity v1 | 0.37 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.83 | 25.16 |
| state index | 0.97 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.16 | 1.46 |