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St. Gilloise 4–1 Dender

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 1, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Bourdeaud'hui

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise win69%1.38
Draw19%5.22
Dender win12%8.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise −1.2553%1.84
Dender −1.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.63
Under41%2.38

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'⚽Mathias Rasmussen · St. Gilloise
32'⚽Anouar Ait El Hadj · St. Gilloise
53'⚽ (pen)Promise David · St. Gilloise
75'⚽Aurelien Scheidler · Dender
78'🟨Malcolm Viltard · Dender
79'🟨Christian Burgess · St. Gilloise
86'⚽Mohammed Fuseini · St. Gilloise
88'🟨Thomas Holmes · Dender

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
20Shots4
15On target2
2Corners5
12Fouls10
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSt. GilloiseDender
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.540.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.630.79
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Joseph Mariën
coach days243.00304.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d5.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.800.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.973.03
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.14
dominance (last 5)0.590.45
elo1757.281469.46
elo momentum (last 5)-2.55-25.60
eye test v11.35-0.18
eye trend v10.500.53
first sub minute (last 10)54.3052.50
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.15
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.30
keeper form v10.760.62
league points55.0033.00
league rank3.0011.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0073.80
possession avg (last 5)53.4046.20
rest days6.097.20
scorer concentration0.270.19
season ppg1.771.06
shot diff avg (last 5)4.40-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.4011.80
skill v10.88-0.48
solidity v10.27-0.92
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.803.30
sot for avg (last 3)8.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)7.004.00
state index0.71-0.77
sterile dominance v1-0.21-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.270.22
threat rate (last 3)0.340.32
threat rate (last 5)0.310.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.181.80
xg for avg (last 5)2.011.26