⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Kortrijk 1–1 Club Brugge

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 23, 06:15 PM UTC · ref: L. D'hondt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win41%2.34
Kortrijk win30%3.31
Draw29%3.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk +0.2551%1.90
Club Brugge +0.2549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.75
Over45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Jean-Kévin Duverne · Kortrijk
39'🟨Jean-Kévin Duverne · Kortrijk
45'🟨Lawrence Agyekum · Club Brugge
63'🟨Marco Ilaimaharitra · Kortrijk
87'🟨Koen Kostons · Kortrijk
89'⚽Paris Brunner · Club Brugge
90'🟨Massimo Bruno · Kortrijk
90'🟨Flávio Nazinho · Club Brugge

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots4
4On target3
5Corners3
22Fouls15
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKortrijkClub Brugge
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.230.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.670.62
cards avg (last 5)2.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGuldensporenstadion
coach days22.0084.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.005.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.408.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.773.14
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.15
dominance (last 5)0.430.64
elo1381.981647.09
elo momentum (last 5)1.63-27.80
eye test v1-0.790.36
eye trend v10.00-0.42
first sub minute (last 10)63.2057.10
form points (last 5)2.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.40
keeper form v10.650.79
league points21.0083.00
league rank16.001.00
matches since blank5.0020.00
matches since clean sheet15.004.00
matches since win11.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2070.80
possession avg (last 5)40.0051.20
rest days8.040.24
scorer concentration0.300.36
season ppg0.721.54
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.808.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.0017.60
skill v1-0.84-0.13
solidity v1-1.230.44
sot against avg (last 5)6.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.005.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.605.00
squad age—22.92
state index-1.12-0.07
sterile dominance v1-0.84-0.59
threat rate (last 10)0.300.34
threat rate (last 3)0.260.33
threat rate (last 5)0.280.30
venue ppg (last 5)0.001.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.901.12
xg for avg (last 5)0.991.74