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Mechelen 1–1 St Truiden

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Fri, Feb 21, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: E. Lambrechts

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen win50%2.00
Draw25%3.97
St Truiden win25%4.11

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen −0.553%1.86
St Truiden −0.547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.60
Under40%2.44

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽ (og)Wolke Janssens · Mechelen
36'🟨Loïc Lapoussin · St Truiden
39'🟨Didier Lamkel Zé · St Truiden
68'🟨Kerim Mrabti · Mechelen
88'🟨Julien Ngoy · Mechelen
90'⚽Andrés Ferrari · St Truiden

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
5Shots11
1On target3
4Corners0
13Fouls7
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMechelenSt Truiden
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.730.71
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAFAS Stadion
coach days478.00173.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.14
corner diff avg (last 5)3.20-5.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.009.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.282.54
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.12
dominance (last 5)0.500.41
elo1549.431499.39
elo momentum (last 5)-8.66-0.02
eye test v10.81-0.06
eye trend v10.25-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)55.6065.30
form points (last 5)4.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.75—
league points35.0028.00
league rank9.0015.00
matches since blank2.009.00
matches since clean sheet0.0016.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4077.40
possession avg (last 5)51.2045.40
rest days5.206.00
scorer concentration0.290.38
season ppg1.170.97
shot diff avg (last 5)1.60-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.8011.80
skill v10.62-0.08
solidity v1-0.89-1.50
sot against avg (last 5)6.605.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.304.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.60
state index-0.30-0.59
sterile dominance v1-0.02-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.260.29
threat rate (last 3)0.360.17
threat rate (last 5)0.290.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.472.26
xg for avg (last 5)1.751.58