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Gent 3–2 Beerschot VA

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 Β· Sun, Feb 16, 12:30 PM UTC Β· ref: K. Van Damme

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent win61%1.60
Draw22%4.40
Beerschot VA win17%6.50

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Beerschot VA βˆ’152%1.88
Gent βˆ’148%2.03

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.64
Under42%2.34

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Daishawn Redan · Beerschot VA
10'⚽Tsuyoshi Watanabe · Gent
20'🟨Colin Dagba · Beerschot VA
53'🟨Brian Plat · Beerschot VA
55'⚽Daishawn Redan · Beerschot VA
67'⚽ (pen)Dante Vanzeir · Gent
90'🟨Daishawn Redan · Beerschot VA
90'πŸŸ₯Antoine Colassin Β· Beerschot VA
90'⚽ (pen)Dante Vanzeir · Gent

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
19Shots15
4On target6
8Corners6
14Fouls10
0Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricGentBeerschot VA
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.660.73
cards avg (last 5)1.201.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venuePlanet Group Arena
coach days46.00412.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d5.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.06
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.992.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.17
dominance (last 5)0.470.42
elo1634.381344.39
elo momentum (last 5)-15.06-3.74
eye test v1-0.24-0.59
eye trend v1-0.18-0.88
first sub minute (last 10)57.9054.60
form points (last 5)6.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
keeper form v10.760.63
league points44.0016.00
league rank7.0017.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.009.00
matches since win2.0011.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8078.20
possession avg (last 5)56.4038.40
rest days2.696.76
scorer concentration0.150.24
season ppg1.570.55
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.80-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.4010.20
skill v10.57-0.63
solidity v1-0.37-1.46
sot against avg (last 5)5.805.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.331.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.00
squad age25.13β€”
state index-0.07-1.46
sterile dominance v10.70-0.68
threat rate (last 10)0.220.28
threat rate (last 3)0.220.18
threat rate (last 5)0.230.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.352.15
xg for avg (last 5)1.051.13