← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 9, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Put
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Westerlo win | 55% | 53% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.10 | value: +4% |
| Standard win | 21% | 22% | 4.76 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Westerlo −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Standard −0.75 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.58 |
| Under | 39% | 2.48 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Karamoko · Standard |
| 10' | ⚽ | Dennis Eckert · Standard |
| 14' | 🟨 | Bryan Reynolds · Westerlo |
| 17' | ⚽ | Isa Sakamoto · Westerlo |
| 31' | ⚽ | Matija Frigan · Westerlo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tuur Rommens · Westerlo |
| 46' | ⚽ | Haspolat Dogucan · Westerlo |
| 89' | ⚽ | Islam Slimani · Westerlo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Andreas Hountondji · Standard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Westerlo | Standard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Het Kuipje |
| coach days | 284.00 | 405.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1521.01 | 1548.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.51 | 36.51 |
| eye test v1 | 1.65 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 27.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 6.97 | 8.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | -0.52 |
| solidity v1 | -0.40 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.23 | 24.11 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.28 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.46 |