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Kortrijk 1–2 St. Gilloise

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Vergoote

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise win62%1.57
Draw22%4.60
Kortrijk win16%6.02

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise +152%1.88
Kortrijk +148%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.78
Under46%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Ross Sykes · St. Gilloise
16'🟨Mark Mampasi · Kortrijk
34'⚽Mohammed Fuseini · St. Gilloise
45'🟨Ousseynou Niang · St. Gilloise
66'⚽Charles Vanhoutte · St. Gilloise
75'🟨Mouhamed Gueye · Kortrijk
90'⚽Jean-Kévin Duverne · Kortrijk

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots16
2On target6
7Corners5
11Fouls9
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKortrijkSt. Gilloise
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.650.76
cards avg (last 5)3.200.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGuldensporenstadion
coach days8.00223.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.21
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.002.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.606.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.871.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.09
dominance (last 5)0.450.67
elo1387.571759.83
elo momentum (last 5)-5.2013.03
eye test v1-0.360.62
eye trend v1-0.02-0.91
first sub minute (last 10)62.0052.50
form points (last 5)2.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.45
keeper form v10.620.72
league points21.0049.00
league rank16.004.00
matches since blank3.0012.00
matches since clean sheet13.002.00
matches since win9.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2081.00
possession avg (last 5)44.6057.40
rest days6.867.00
scorer concentration0.330.31
season ppg0.781.75
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.606.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.2013.00
skill v1-0.171.17
solidity v1-0.960.77
sot against avg (last 5)6.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.206.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.60
state index-0.971.01
sterile dominance v1-0.330.69
threat rate (last 10)0.290.29
threat rate (last 3)0.270.23
threat rate (last 5)0.270.23
venue ppg (last 5)0.602.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.811.08
xg for avg (last 5)1.212.34