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Kortrijk 1–2 Westerlo

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 2, 06:15 PM UTC · ref: K. Van Damme

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Westerlo win43%2.25
Kortrijk win30%3.12
Draw27%3.65

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk +0.2550%1.93
Westerlo +0.2550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Luka Vušković · Westerlo
27'⚽Jean-Kévin Duverne · Kortrijk
33'🟨Bram Lagae · Kortrijk
36'🟨Bryan Reynolds · Westerlo
44'🟨Emin Bayram · Westerlo
45'🟨Islam Slimani · Westerlo
63'🟨Emin Bayram · Westerlo
63'🟥Emin Bayram · Westerlo
67'⚽Jordan Bos · Westerlo
70'🟨Abdelkahar Kadri · Kortrijk
82'🟨Abdelkahar Kadri

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots14
3On target8
5Corners6
11Fouls10
4Yellow cards6
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKortrijkWesterlo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.670.65
cards avg (last 5)2.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGuldensporenstadion
· Kortrijk
82'🟥Abdelkahar Kadri · Kortrijk
89'⚽Matija Frigan · Westerlo
90'🟨Marco Ilaimaharitra · Kortrijk
90'🟨Matija Frigan · Westerlo
coach days1.00277.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.205.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.402.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.207.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.882.15
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.24
dominance (last 5)0.450.66
elo1397.181470.73
elo momentum (last 5)-4.42-23.88
eye test v1-0.301.52
eye trend v10.14-0.02
first sub minute (last 10)64.5060.40
form points (last 5)2.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.203.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
keeper form v10.690.68
league points21.0024.00
league rank16.0015.00
matches since blank2.007.00
matches since clean sheet12.009.00
matches since win8.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0082.00
possession avg (last 5)44.4045.20
rest days7.948.14
scorer concentration0.350.18
season ppg0.810.92
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.809.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.0019.00
skill v1-0.110.27
solidity v1-0.69-0.54
sot against avg (last 5)5.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.406.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.007.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.407.40
state index-0.90-0.87
sterile dominance v1-0.46-1.51
threat rate (last 10)0.310.37
threat rate (last 3)0.300.43
threat rate (last 5)0.290.43
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.711.22
xg for avg (last 5)1.251.66