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Charleroi 5–0 Dender

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Laforge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Charleroi win53%1.83
Draw27%3.60
Dender win20%4.85

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dender −0.7554%1.79
Charleroi −0.7546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.89
Over49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Adem Zorgane · Charleroi
14'🟨Bryan Goncalves · Dender
17'⚽Nikola Štulić · Charleroi
40'🟥Bruny Nsimba · Dender
44'⚽Nikola Štulić · Charleroi
45'🟥Aurelien Scheidler · Dender
63'🟨Aiham Ousou · Charleroi
71'⚽ (pen)Daan Heymans · Charleroi
82'⚽Antoine Bernier · Charleroi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
19Shots3
10On target2
1Corners3
10Fouls6
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCharleroiDender
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.560.65
cards avg (last 5)2.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Pays de Charleroi
coach days337.00276.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.202.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.202.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.593.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.12
dominance (last 5)0.530.46
elo1514.911495.07
elo momentum (last 5)21.01-7.84
eye test v10.18-0.97
eye trend v1-0.33-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)67.3050.70
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.750.68
league points30.0029.00
league rank10.0011.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win3.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0075.60
possession avg (last 5)47.4049.40
rest days6.916.10
scorer concentration0.270.21
season ppg1.151.12
shot diff avg (last 5)2.00-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.8010.40
skill v1-0.25-0.37
solidity v10.58-0.17
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.002.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.002.40
state index0.10-0.39
sterile dominance v1-0.280.24
threat rate (last 10)0.290.20
threat rate (last 3)0.200.20
threat rate (last 5)0.270.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.101.48
xg for avg (last 5)1.111.03