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Beerschot VA 0–4 St. Gilloise

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Visser

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise win65%1.50
Draw21%4.75
Beerschot VA win14%7.71

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Beerschot VA +1.2550%1.93
St. Gilloise +1.2550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.77
Under45%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Franjo Ivanović · St. Gilloise
18'⚽Ousseynou Niang · St. Gilloise
33'🟥Faisal Al-Ghamdi · Beerschot VA
36'⚽Franjo Ivanović · St. Gilloise
45'🟨Anan Khalaili · St. Gilloise
65'⚽Promise David · St. Gilloise

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
5Shots11
3On target5
7Corners6
4Fouls14
0Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBeerschot VASt. Gilloise
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.46
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.53
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.49
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.590.76
cards avg (last 5)0.801.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOlympisch Stadion
coach days391.00209.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.403.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.402.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.005.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.083.34
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.11
dominance (last 5)0.500.63
elo1346.761760.85
elo momentum (last 5)-10.3234.89
eye test v10.730.48
eye trend v1-0.16-0.76
first sub minute (last 10)55.2052.30
form points (last 5)1.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.40
keeper form v10.700.78
league points15.0043.00
league rank17.004.00
matches since blank3.009.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win8.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6077.60
possession avg (last 5)48.6048.80
rest days7.802.79
scorer concentration0.250.28
season ppg0.581.65
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.607.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.4015.60
skill v10.060.52
solidity v1-0.990.68
sot against avg (last 5)5.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.507.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.005.40
state index-1.031.21
sterile dominance v1-0.620.07
threat rate (last 10)0.300.33
threat rate (last 3)0.340.20
threat rate (last 5)0.320.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.601.06
xg for avg (last 5)1.441.54