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Kortrijk 0–2 Anderlecht

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 19, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: L. D'hondt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht win47%2.09
Draw27%3.60
Kortrijk win26%3.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk +0.553%1.83
Anderlecht +0.547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.93
Over50%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

61'🟨João Silva · Kortrijk
62'⚽Thorgan Hazard · Anderlecht
64'🟨João Silva · Kortrijk
64'🟥João Silva · Kortrijk
66'🟨Thorgan Hazard · Anderlecht
70'🟨Thierry Ambrose · Kortrijk
89'🟨Tristan Degreef · Anderlecht
90'⚽César Huerta · Anderlecht

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots10
3On target3
7Corners7
9Fouls11
3Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKortrijkAnderlecht
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.620.71
cards avg (last 5)1.800.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGuldensporenstadion
coach days49.00140.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.09
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.406.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.322.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.13
dominance (last 5)0.530.43
elo1386.821671.09
elo momentum (last 5)-34.17-61.45
eye test v1-0.12-0.12
eye trend v10.06-0.31
first sub minute (last 10)59.9056.30
form points (last 5)1.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.40
keeper form v10.670.73
league points19.0035.00
league rank16.006.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet9.004.00
matches since win5.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8081.40
possession avg (last 5)49.0047.00
rest days8.706.79
scorer concentration0.380.28
season ppg0.831.40
shot diff avg (last 5)1.20-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.0012.00
skill v10.080.34
solidity v1-0.89-1.04
sot against avg (last 5)5.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.605.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.80
squad age—28.61
state index-0.89-0.41
sterile dominance v1-0.580.39
threat rate (last 10)0.280.21
threat rate (last 3)0.280.20
threat rate (last 5)0.330.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.681.93
xg for avg (last 5)1.331.57