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Beerschot VA 1–1 Antwerp

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 Β· Sun, Jan 12, 12:30 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Boterberg

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp win51%1.91
Draw26%3.75
Beerschot VA win23%4.27

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Beerschot VA +0.7553%1.81
Antwerp +0.7547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.76
Under45%2.13

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Thibaud Verlinden · Beerschot VA
19'🟨Denis Odoi · Antwerp
25'🟨Vincent Janssen · Antwerp
28'🟨Ewan Henderson · Beerschot VA
59'⚽Tjaronn Chery · Antwerp
66'🟨Omar Fayed · Beerschot VA
76'🟨Zeno Van Den Bosch · Antwerp
85'🟨Faisal Al-Ghamdi · Beerschot VA

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots12
7On target2
5Corners6
12Fouls11
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBeerschot VAAntwerp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.34
box share (last 5)0.570.65
cards avg (last 5)2.202.40
coach days377.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueOlympisch Stadion
195.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.80-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)7.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.961.97
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.14
dominance (last 5)0.490.49
elo1344.901636.80
elo momentum (last 5)-12.25-18.14
eye test v10.910.03
eye trend v10.11-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)57.7060.90
form points (last 5)2.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.150.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
keeper form v10.750.78
league points14.0033.00
league rank17.007.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet3.008.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8082.40
possession avg (last 5)51.2053.40
rest days15.7917.00
scorer concentration0.290.23
season ppg0.611.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.8013.00
skill v10.150.37
solidity v1-0.45-1.26
sot against avg (last 5)5.006.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.604.40
state index-0.800.14
sterile dominance v1-0.380.43
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.290.19
threat rate (last 5)0.310.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.541.93
xg for avg (last 5)1.491.22